Health Security and the Case for Earlier Action

Health security has returned to the foreground as governments confront the lasting toll of COVID-19 and a widening range of cross-border threats. More than 7 million confirmed deaths, as many as 20 million excess deaths and USD 13.8 trillion (€11.7 trillion) in global GDP losses by 2024 continue to shape the debate. Dengue, influenza, mpox and H5N1 remain active across borders, while measles and polio are resurfacing in places where they had been virtually eliminated. Novel zoonotic risks are rising, antimicrobial resistance continues to cause millions of deaths each year and biothreats remain a concern. In that context, an FP Analytics issue brief produced with support from IFPMA links renewed international commitments on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.

Growing Risks Across a Fragmented Landscape

Health security faces mounting pressure from population growth, urbanisation, travel, climate change and changing patterns of human and animal interaction. The global population is projected to peak at 10.3 billion by 2084, with more people living in cities and moving across borders. Closer contact between people increases infectious disease risks and adds pressure on health services, sanitation and local environments. Greater global interconnectivity also accelerates disease spread. During COVID-19, the virus appeared in 114 countries within four months.

Increased and industrialised agricultural production adds further risk by raising the potential for disease transmission among livestock, nearby animal populations and humans. Climate change compounds these pressures by increasing the risk of zoonotic outbreaks, worsening environmental threats to health and weakening health infrastructure. Changes in temperature and rainfall are driving vector-borne illnesses, while higher temperatures, heavier rainfall and greater humidity are expanding the habitable range of mosquitoes. Extreme weather places additional strain on health systems, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

Must Read: Embedding Equity in Global Health Implementation

At the same time, disease surveillance depends on trust, openness, information sharing and coordination, all of which are harder to sustain in a fragmented and polarised environment. Donor pullback adds further strain, with least-developed countries projected to see net bilateral official development assistance fall sharply in 2025.

Why Preparedness Spending Carries Wider Value

Upfront investment in health security offers an alternative to far larger losses once crises take hold. The World Bank estimates that a comprehensive global system for pandemic preparedness and response would require USD 31 billion (€26.3 billion) annually. That amount is small beside the estimated annual costs of future pandemics, the annual burden of long COVID and global military spending. Earlier detection, stronger surveillance, diagnostics, immunisation systems, research and development and information-sharing mechanisms can reduce disease spread, improve treatment options and lower the burden on health systems.

Global cooperation on COVID-19 vaccines, supported by rapid genetic sequencing, regulatory cooperation, existing clinical trial infrastructure and long-term research in vaccine platforms, led to a vaccine in record time, with the first dose administered outside a clinical trial on December 8, 2020. Vaccination over the following year prevented an estimated 14.4 million deaths. During the 2013-16 Ebola outbreak, Nigeria contained its outbreak with eight deaths and USD 186 million (€157.7 million) in damage through epidemic response infrastructure including contact tracing and laboratory capacity, while neighbouring Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia recorded more than 10,000 confirmed deaths and USD 2.8 billion (€2.37 billion) in costs. The value of preparedness also extends beyond health budgets to governance, resilience, trust and biosecurity.

Innovation, Access and the 2026 Opportunity

Health innovation remains central to preparedness, but development speed alone is not enough. New medicines, vaccines and therapeutics underpin health gains, yet their impact depends on sustained investment, supportive regulation, delivery systems and uptake before crises emerge. The 100 Days Mission aims to reduce the time from disease identification to access to safe and effective vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics to 100 days. In COVID-19, reaching that timeline could have saved an estimated 8 million lives and avoided trillions of dollars in economic damage.

Surveillance and diagnostics also shape the quality and speed of response. At-home antigen tests shortened confirmation times, digital tools supported self-reporting and contact tracing, wearable devices improved monitoring and wastewater surveillance offered faster signals on disease prevalence in communities. Emerging technologies add further possibilities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning can strengthen diagnostics, early warning and outbreak modelling, while CRISPR has applications in rapid diagnostics and medical countermeasures.

Yet access remains uneven. Pulse oximeters can cost as little as USD 10 (€8.48), but they are available in only 54% of general hospitals in low- and middle-income countries. Priorities for 2026 include stronger innovation ecosystems, better surveillance and delivery-ready health capacity, renewed trust in institutions and expertise, closer alignment between universal health care and PPPR and deeper cooperation across public, private, civil society and academic actors.

Health security depends on sustained investment in innovation and in the systems that prevent, detect and respond to threats at scale. The pressures are persistent, ranging from recurring infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance to climate-linked risks and biothreats. The costs of delay repeatedly exceed the costs of preparedness. Reinforcing political commitment, strengthening practical capacity and connecting innovation more closely with delivery remain central to ensuring that tools, systems and cooperation are in place before the next crisis emerges.

Source: IFPMA

Image Credit: iStock