The European Union faces significant challenges in balancing healthcare workforce supply and demand over the coming decades. An ageing population, rising health service demands and a shrinking working-age demographic create pressure on health systems across the EU27. Projections for the period 2021-2071 underscore the need for strategic workforce planning to ensure sustainability and quality care delivery. Workforce imbalances, driven by both demographic shifts and policy gaps, have placed unprecedented strain on health services, necessitating comprehensive reform and cross-national cooperation.
The Impact of an Ageing Population
The ageing population is a primary driver of increased healthcare demand across the EU. By 2050, almost 30% of the EU's population is expected to be aged 65 or older. This demographic shift amplifies the need for medical services, particularly chronic disease management and long-term care. Older populations typically require more frequent medical interventions, ranging from preventive care to complex treatment plans. Simultaneously, a shrinking working-age population limits the pool of available healthcare professionals, exacerbating workforce shortages. Strategic policy interventions will be essential to address both service demand and workforce capacity, ensuring that ageing populations receive adequate care without overburdening existing systems.
The rising demand is also linked to longer life expectancy and medical advancements. While these developments are positive, they place increased strain on health services that must now cater to a population with diverse and complex health needs. Preventive health measures, wellness programmes and early intervention strategies can reduce the overall demand for services by keeping older populations healthier for longer.
Workforce Supply Projections and Migration
Several factors, including educational pipelines, retention rates and migration patterns influence the supply of healthcare professionals. Current projections suggest that the number of doctors and nurses will rise by 2071 but not sufficiently to meet anticipated demand. The number of professionals entering the workforce through education and training remains constrained by limited capacity and long qualification periods. International migration plays a dual role: it alleviates immediate shortages but can create long-term imbalances, particularly in source countries facing a 'brain drain'. Policies need to balance the recruitment of foreign-trained professionals with domestic capacity-building to ensure a stable workforce. Encouraging return migration, professional reintegration and partnerships with non-EU countries for ethical recruitment can help address systemic gaps.
Additionally, retention challenges arise from burnout, poor working conditions and wage disparities, leading to higher attrition rates among healthcare workers. Addressing these issues through improved working conditions, professional development opportunities and mental health support is crucial to keeping skilled professionals in the sector.
Policy Approaches for Workforce Planning
Effective workforce planning requires coordinated policy frameworks at both the EU and national levels. The Supply and Demand (SANDEM) model developed by the Joint Research Centre offers a projection tool to aid strategic planning. It considers demographic trends, graduation rates, retention and migration to estimate future workforce dynamics. Policymakers must also address disparities between regions, where rural and remote areas often face acute shortages. Support for continuous professional development, improved working conditions and better pay structures can enhance retention rates. Additionally, policies promoting healthy ageing and preventive care can reduce long-term service demand. Cross-border collaboration through shared databases and aligned licensing standards can also enhance workforce mobility across the EU.
Further strategies include increasing education capacity for healthcare professionals, particularly in high-demand areas such as geriatrics and primary care. Encouraging lifelong learning and skills upgrading will ensure that the workforce can adapt to technological advancements and evolving healthcare models. Investment in digital health tools and telemedicine can also help bridge gaps in underserved regions.
The EU healthcare workforce faces significant challenges due to demographic shifts and rising service demands. Proactive strategies, including improved workforce planning, retention initiatives and sustainable migration policies, will be critical to maintaining healthcare system resilience. By leveraging tools like the SANDEM model and focusing on long-term policy frameworks, the EU can build a more balanced and capable healthcare workforce for the future. Coordinated action, with a focus on equitable resource distribution, training investment and ethical migration practices, will ensure that healthcare systems can meet evolving demands while safeguarding patient care quality. The long-term success of EU healthcare depends on sustained investment in both human resources and infrastructure, ensuring accessible, high-quality care for all citizens.
Source: Joint Research Centre of European Commission
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