The number of people who live past the age of 100 has been increasing for decades. Today, there are nearly half a million people worldwide who are over the age of 100. However, very few people live to be supercentenarians - people who live to age 110 or even longer. Currently, the world’s oldest person is 118-year-old Kane Tanaka of Japan.
However, according to new research by the University of Washington, extreme longevity will continue to rise by the end of this century. Estimates show that a lifespan of 125 years, or even 130 years, is possible. According to lead author Michael Pearce, a UW doctoral student in statistics, some individuals may reach various extreme ages this century.
The study, published in Demographic Research, examines the extremes of human life. The researchers tried to to determine the longest individual human lifespan that could be anywhere in the world by the year 2100. They estimated that the world record of 122 years almost certainly will be broken, with a strong likelihood of at least one person living to anywhere between 125 and 132 years.
Key findings of this study include:
- Near 100% probability that the current record of maximum reported age at death — Jeanne Calment of France - 122 years, 164 days — will be broken.
- Probability of a person living longer, to 124 years old is 99% probable and to 127 years old, 68%.
- Longer lifespan is possible but much less likely, with a 13% probability of someone living to age 130.
- Extremely unlikely that someone would live to 135 in this century.
However, even with population growth and advances in health care, there is a flattening of the mortality rate after a certain age.
Source: University of Washington
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