By 2030, over one billion adolescents (aged 10–24) will still be living in countries where preventable and treatable health issues such as HIV/AIDS, early pregnancy, unsafe sex, depression, poor nutrition, and injury pose significant threats to their health and well-being, according to a new analysis from the second Lancet Commission on Adolescent Health and Well-being.
The global health of adolescents stands at a tipping point. While there have been declines in tobacco and alcohol use and improved access to secondary and higher education, other indicators are deeply concerning. In parts of Africa and Asia, adolescent overweight and obesity rates have increased up to eightfold, and mental health issues are on the rise globally. New global challenges, including climate change, digital transitions, and armed conflicts, further threaten adolescent well-being.
Investing in young people’s health is essential. It is important to strengthen health systems, promote well-being through schools, ensure healthcare access, and involve adolescents themselves in shaping a more equitable and sustainable future.
A decade after the first Lancet Commission report in 2016, some global improvements, like lower smoking and alcohol use and increased school attendance, have been recorded. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and insufficient funding have significantly undermined overall progress.
Using 2021 data from the Global Burden of Disease study, the Commission estimates that nearly 1.1 billion adolescents live in “multi-burden” countries—nations where multiple preventable health threats remain prevalent. That figure has risen slightly from just under 1 billion in 2016, largely due to population growth and lack of sustained policy action. Without urgent investment and political commitment, this number is projected to remain above 1 billion by 2030.
Some key findings and projections for 2030 include:
- Anaemia: Nearly one-third of adolescent girls globally will be anaemic, impacting energy, growth, cognitive development and, in severe cases, leading to organ damage.
- Mental Health: Poor adolescent mental health continues to worsen, with projections showing 42 million years of healthy life lost to mental disorders or suicide by 2030—2 million more than in 2015.
- Obesity: One in three adolescents in high-income countries, Latin America and the Middle East is expected to be overweight by 2030. Globally, 464 million adolescents will be overweight or obese—143 million more than in 2015.
Africa will be a focal point. Africa’s share of the world’s adolescents will increase from under 25% today to more than 46% by 2100. Progress in Africa will determine global adolescent health outcomes. There is a need for focused strategies that meet the unique needs of young people across the continent.
The Commission highlights two major emerging threats: climate change and digital transformation. Adolescents today are the first generation to live entirely in a climate that is, on average, 0.5°C warmer than pre-industrial times. By 2100, nearly 2 billion adolescents will face the devastating health effects of a world warmed by 2.8°C—heat-related illnesses, food and water insecurity, and climate-induced mental health crises.
A systematic review conducted by the Commission found that both acute climate disasters (e.g., hurricanes) and slow-onset effects (e.g., food insecurity) are linked to mental health conditions like PTSD, anxiety, and depression in adolescents. The Commission has identified interventions that support adolescent well-being while also advancing biodiversity, climate resilience, and social justice. These co-benefit strategies offer a path to a healthier, more sustainable future.
Meanwhile, the digital world presents a double-edged sword. While offering new avenues for education, social connection, and employment, it also raises concerns about the emotional and developmental impacts of online life. Though conclusive causal evidence is limited, the Commission urges balanced, protective strategies that avoid over-restriction.
Despite representing 25% of the global population and 9% of the disease burden, adolescents receive only 2.4% of global aid funding. The Commission argues that investments in adolescent health offer returns equal to or better than investments in early childhood, yet remain vastly underfunded due to fragmented leadership and accountability.
Adolescents are already leading change, shaping policies, and championing planetary health. It’s time for decision-makers to invest in our generation so we can build a healthier, more empowered future.
Source: The Lancet
Image Credit: iStock
